Friday, May 29, 2009

The Psychology Of 4/1

Friday used to be my favorite day... now I'm always baffled by how fast the week went and looking forward to planning for next week - must be in the right business for me!

Anyway - a good old fashioned 'something to think about' post today. This one was triggered by a comment over at Melted Felt, it was on a post about Carbon Poker being rigged not to pay out the bad beat jackpot... and was from a reader who posted his evidence that Carbon was rigged in all seriousness - this evidence was... wait for it - you'll never guess (!). It was a hand history from a $2 SNG in which his aces were cracked by queens all-in pre flop.

Well well, obviously not played much poker sir (probably the kindest thing I can say!)

Anyway, it got my old mind whirling about those odds 80% to 20%, and how the perception of most people - even those who know the percentages - is that those pair-over-pair situations are much bigger favorites than the mere odds suggest.

4/1 is not that big a deal in many situations.

You have 5 eggs left in your box and one turns out to be bad.

You order 5 scotches over the course of an evening and they add diet coke to one of them.

For every 4 times you catch the metro, once you arrive just as the train closes its doors.

I mean, when you put those same odds into every day situations it seems like each is almost waiting to happen. So then, why do people get so upset / surprised / amazed / conspirational when they lose a pair over pair situation?

Baffles me!

Gl at the tables, Mark

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