Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Interesting PLO Situation...

Got the internet connection in the new flat yesterday - and celebrated with a nice cup of tea and quick PLO sessions at Party and Titan.

About half an hour in when this one came up, even as I write this post I am not really sure why I played the hand to start with - there were too many aces in it! Really my final decision came down to a read... read on!

So, $25 PLO Full Ring on Party... 3 limpers to me in the c/o with the dubious A-A-A-3 (well, at least the 3 was suited with one of the aces!)... I limp behind. 1 more limp, the SB completes and then the BB pots it for $2.25ish... 1 fold and full stacked player re-pots to $8ish leaving himself $16... folds to me.

Now my reads, the BB was a maniac, potting and repotting with any highish pair, any suited high cards and most connected hands... half of starting hands would be about right.... after his bet he had another $10 behind.

The limp-reraiser seemed tight enough, the normal passive limpy type that seem to spread like fungus through the lower buy-in PLO games paying $$$ to flop the nuts, then slowplaying so badly when they finally hit that they win sweet f/a (sure you get the type).

Now, if he was rational there is no hand he should be folding if I reraise and the BB calls right... by then we have $50-odd in the pot and it costs his last $16 to call, so even KKxx should call knowing I had AAxx... but these guys are not rational, in fact they are horribly weak... in addition I know that he can not have a pair of aces (after all, I have 3 of them!) and that my re-re-pot looks like that hand...

In the actual hand I did re-re-pot virtually all-in, the BB called with some horrible semi-connected junk and the limp re-raiser folded... the pot came my way.

But hang on a minute.

Gave myself a difficult decision here by limping a hand with very few redeeming features, lets have a retrospective look at the odds vs both one and two opponents...

Me: A-A-A-3 single suited (38.59%)
BB: K-10-8-4 single suited (yep, it really was that horiffic!) (27.42%)
Limp / Reraiser: Q-Q-J-9 single suited (we do not know his hand, but this kind of thing is my best guess for the limp + reraise + fold) (33.96%)

So, after the limp-reraiser folded.

Me: 56.81%
BB: 43.19%

And in the final scenario that the BB folds and the Limper calls.

Me: 60.56%
Limper: 39.44%

Well, at the end of the day I am not sure why I initially limped... with all that dead money in the pot it seems that the re-raise all-in was the right move. While we will never know what the limp=reraiser really had this play was horrific - that, dear readers, is todays pause for poker thought.... if you are going to fold getting more than 3/1 pre-flop in PLO then you really should consider another game instead!!

GL at those tables, Mark

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