Friday, October 03, 2008

A Hand On Plan3t Gong?!??!

Only post the occasional hand here - really prefer to challenge the old brain cells in slightly different ways! Well, last night this hand came up, actually happy with my play - which was to fold!

What I thought was interesting was the critical role that stack sizes play in this decision, and more importantly, how the fact that many opponents are more interested in their cards only and are not taking stack-size dynamics into account affects decision making here...

Anyway, the Party nightly 18k gtd $5o+$5, started with 420ish and are now down to 18 players. I am in the small blind with a stack of XYZ (!) and am dealt AcKc... the blinds are 6000 / 3000 with a smallish ante (200?), here is the action ahead of me:

UTG+1 (average to tight) with around 30,000 chips open shoves.... folds to
C/O (fairly loose but not crazy) with around 80,000 chips who doubles the raise to 60k
Next Button (tight with raises, will limp) with around 110,000 chips shoves over the top...

... so it is me to act in the SB with my lovely AcKc and XYZ chips. Here is my thought process at the time, range for UTG+1 = 66+ A10+ KQ... range for CO is tighter 1010+ AQs+... for the button to see all this action and still shove he needs to beat COs range - I'm giving him AA, KK or AK here with a very small % chance of QQ.

... my AK is well behind this range and potentially in worse shape as aces are somewhat likely to be in the hands of my opponents. On the other hand the odds are great and the winner of this pot will be in great shape going into the final table.

Anyhow, I'm a self-proclaimed nit and folded my hand.... my mid-to-small stack being the main reason.

What I'd like to get readers thinking about here is how small a stack (in terms of blinds) would I need to make this a call? On the other side of the coin would this be a call with a large stack of say 200k or 250k chips... thinking about the chances of knocking out a competitor with a decent stack just in time to own the final table bubble!

Will be pondering this one myself today.

The tournament? 16th, bah... maybe next time.

GL at the tables, Mark

1 comment:

AllanDuke said...

Easy fold. Well, its tough throwing away big hands against online donkeys, but AK loses value when short stacked if it is not the initial aggressor. All of that action really lowers the value of AK, and there really is no way for it to come out ahead here. If I was down to three blinds, I'd call unless it was the bubble. But I'd fold it under any other scenario.