Monday, September 08, 2008

How Long Is A Piece Of Poker Player?

Some interesting stats to share today... this actually came from the Party Poker stock market report on the first 2Qs of 08, and contained a few 'nuggets'.

The one I wanted to mention today was the averages for the length of stay for real-money signups - here is the data:

25.8% of RMPs (real money players) still active after 6 months.
20.2% of RMPs still active after 12 months.
16.3% still active after 18 months.

Now, my first obsertvation here is how small the jump from 6 to 12 months is... and then the 18 month mark too... to put it another way 80% of those players who stick at it for 6 months will still be there after a year and likewise for those who make a year compared to 18 months.

Of course, many players will switch sites, however we can assume that a percentage of the RMPs in fact started elsewhere.

The 74.2% drop out rate for the first 6 months does not suprise me really. Included here are the players who signed up for a chipset / bonus with no intention of playing more, those who put in $100 then played passive horrible poker convincing themselves that the game was rigged and those who ran their same $100 up to $700 playing way above their roll - before convincing themselves that they are really very good at poker, just unlucky.

Another interesting snippet from this is that Party do not offer rakeback... this actually backs up my thoughts that the majority of players do not actually care about this - that the site you are most 'comfortable' at is a big factor in where you play... of course they will lose some high volume . value players along the way but the fact that the majority of attrition occours during the first 6 months suggests that RB is a minor factor.

Well, will leave you with one more thought - especially for those regular readers of my 'planet; strategy sites... if you can not beat a bunch of novices - 75% of whom have less than 6 months - then you may need to study a little harder (or just suck-out better!)

Gl at the tables, Mark


mikewoodhouse said...

Well I dunno about that 75% figure.

Assume, for the sake of a possibly straw-man argument, that 1000 players join a site every 6 months and the retention stats are as quoted, with a further 10% giving up or leaving every 6 months after 18. Assume further, because I'm lazy, that people only start or stop playing at six-month intervals. Oh, and everybody continues to play the same stakes.

In the first 6 months, everybody's a newbie.
In the second, we now have 1258 players, of whom 1000 are new, which makes the newb proportion about 80%.

As we go on, after about 5 years there are just under 1400 players still around with more than 6 months' experience and our 1000 newbies are only 42% of the playing population.

At 10 years,it's down to 36%.

In other words, game selection and fish identification becomes more important as time goes on.

Or not. That was a long list of assumptions.

Mark said...

Good points Mike - as usual in life the truth is probably somewhere in-between.

Not sure if any readers have been to Party recently (I'm only an occasional visitor)... but the take-up by Germans is staggering - can be half the players on some tables!

Cheers, Mark

Littleacornman said...

Great post and comment from Mike.Even if nearly half are newbies it's still food for thought.