Saturday, April 19, 2008

Into The Mind Of A Donk - Part #3 - Perception Of Chance

Written here before about chance... theme of the previous post was concened how getting your chips in as a solid favourite just 3 or 4 times in a tournament actually leaves you as mathematically favored to have busted!

This post comes from the observation that it is actually very difficult to play a session of poker these days without someone suggesting (be it explicitly or implicitly) that the site you are playing on is 'rigged'. This appears more prevalent the lower the stakes.... we have all seen it right?

'Only on Jokerstars'

'Knew That Ace was going to flop as soon as I called (with kings / queens / whatever), always happens on this site'

'Another donk play rewarded by poker-site-XYZ'

The 'Poker thought' for today actually comes in 3 forms, each of which may well deserve a longer look / separate post themselves....

1) The perception of how favoured you are in a dominating hand situation is often waaaayyy off to inexperienced players 33% of the time may seem like a small number to lose but really you are winning only twice for each loss in this situation.

2) The absurd (In my opinion) yet prevalent idea that poker is somehow rigged to reward bad / new players in order to keep them playing longer (and somehow make more profit). This irritates me just mentioning it!! Promise a post at some point in the near future to examine this ridiculous - yet widely held - belief on several different levels!

3) The effect of play - specifically the tendency of inexperienced players to slowplay too often on the number of 'suckouts'... you would think that if a donk decided to check trip 8's on a 8=9=10 board with 3 hearts rather than charge an opponent with the bare ace to see another card then they are taking an undue risk (and leaving money on the table those times a heart does not fall (another story!)).... this really happened just the other day and the player with the 8's thought that the site was rigged, that all his opponents were fish and that he was the unluckiest player in the world - and let us all know from the rail for a good 10 minutes!!

Anyway, that is enough to keep readers thinking for the moment... have a treat for you either later today or tomorrow with some 'guest articles' on heads-up SNG strategy about to go up on SNG Planet.

Oh - and don't forget that the $160 overlay Carbon Poker private tournament takes place tomorrow (Sunday).... details 2 posts below this one.

GL at those tables, Mark

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