Friday, March 07, 2008

Ever Been Run Into The Nuts??

Here is a scenario that should sound familiar to many...

After some careful observation of your opponents in over several levels in a tournament the following situation comes up:

UTG: A loose and not very good player makes a small raise. This is the 5th small raise in the last 10 hands - we put his range as any ace, pair, any 2 broadway, any suited broadway and any suited connector (+ unsuited connectors 89+).

MP2: This player seems decent if a little tricky and has only shown down strong hands while quietly accumulating chips. He raises 3 times the UTG players bet. Having observed that this player prefers to raise smaller with monster hands we tentitively put him on a medium pair (8-8 to 10-10, or something like AQ or AJs).

Us... in the C/O: Wake up with 10's... a great spot and with only 20 BBs in our stack a fantastic chance to win a bunch of chips without a flight - and still have (most probably) the best side of a coin flip if we are called by MP2.... the chips go sailing in....


Wait for it...

The big blind wakes up with KK and we are on the way to the 'virtual rail'.

Yep, our careful observations of opponents turned out to be spot on - the UTG player had junk and the guy in MP2 had A10 'soooted' and pre-checked the flod button as soon as we raised.

Of course, it is not easy to account for the blinds waking up with a monster each time we contemplate making a move. What we can do though is at least to observe those players to our left. How many are still to act? Are there any very big or very small stacks? How experienced are these opponents - could they have seen what we just went through and call 'light' as a result?

Our stacks would need to be deep in order to get away from a decent hand in such circumstances. What I wanted to bring up as todays 'something to think about' was that there is always a risk from those yet to act... accounting for this either statistically (card distributions) or based on stack sizes / tendencies might just save our stack one day...

GL at those tables, Mark

PS: Down in Kiskunhalas (south Hungary) enjoying the hostpitality of the in-laws at the moment... back home tomorrow to resume normal blogging service.

PPS: Still ok with the non-smoking after 3 weeks, though still get those cravings almost every day at some point!

1 comment:

Littleacornman said...

Good work staying off the smokes!

Re Todays post.One of the recent training videos I watched linked to Sklanskys chubukov rankings.Now I'm not a Maths guy and didn't understand all the number crunching but I know enough to say the ranking chart demonstrates your point about hands losing value when raised from early position as they have to get past more players to win.