Sunday, January 13, 2008

Interesting Satellite Hand - What Is Your Play?

After the intensity of work over the last week I had a 'day off' yesterday and managed to fit some poker in... a reasonable run in the nightly $50k Gtd on Stars and a $24 KO on Tilt (planning to write some thoughts on Knockout tournament strategy next week!).

The hand I wanted to cover came in a satellite to the Sunday Warm up... there were 2 key factors here, my very short stack (had lost a hand just before for 3/4ths of my chips)... there were 19 left (of 240 odd) and 13 getting the $215 seats at this point, the second key factor was that the blinds were about to go up (within a few seconds) from 12k / 6k (600 ante) to 20k / 10k (1000 ante)... and I was UTG with around 10,000 chips.

Was dealt Q-J suited and thought, 'fair enough' better than average so in it goes... I won the hand after being called by A-J and almost trippled up... but that does not matter for this discussion... my question is whether this push was worth the risk?

2 factors

- I was guaranteed a showdown (at the very least from the big stacked BB, if someone else flat called then I would have to beat 2 hands)
(and the key factor I have been thinking about) - I was all-in in the blinds whether I won or lost, that is to say the BB and SB (+antes) would wipe me out.

It is the second factor that I think was a bad decision - since I'd have to win the showdown in the next hand anyway there was no sense in pushing a hand, even if this was above 'average' the hand before - even though this feels like the 'natural' play... will not do it again! Any thoughts on this hand most welcome!

Gl at those satellite tables, Mark


GT said...

Couple questions, 1 what place were you in of the 19 left? How many people were at the table? How many short stacks were at your table? How aggressive was the table? QJs was above average hand if conditions were right i would rather push that UTG then have to go through the blinds with my short stack and 6 to be elimanated b4 you cash. Better question is why did you risk 3/4 of your stack when you could prob coast to a seat? GT

Mark said...

Great questions GT, must have played 12 or 15 of these yesterday so do not recall the hand before... agree they are situtional though.

No chance of coasting here, 12 got the seat if I recall correctly (could have been + / - 1 ).

Usually I shove here, what got me thinking was that since I will be blinded away even after winning the hand was the extra risk worthwhile... guess it is yes, since then winning in the blinds would give me some chips - however with the blinds going up enough to put me all in again it is 2 risks rather than 1...

Luckily this weekends endeavours left me with a nice pot of T$!

(oh and I lost this one!)

Cheers for the thoughts, Mark

Ukgatsby said...

Happy New Year
gl for 2008


KajaPoker said...

you have to push QJs UTG here. It is a much better than average hand and will have better showdown vluae than whatever you might get in the BB if you fold. The problem is you will probably get called in the BB and face a multi-way pot when you don't know what kind of hand you will get.

I probably push here in this situation.

Anonymous said...

You can't fold into the money and soon you're going to be forced all in with a random hand.It's an instashove for me.QJs is a top 9% hand so you're unlikely to be any better off by folding.

Oopda said...

It would be helpful to see a proper hand history with stack sizes -- this would make it easier to determine the amount of fold equity you have. i.e., would your stack be big enough to put a dent in the average stack at the table?

In general, this is a must-shove. I like this hand better than say, A7, which would almost always be dominated when you get called. You can't just fold QJ and this spot and hope to get an above-average hand AGAIN in the BB.

I don't think it's relevant to worry about getting additional callers. If you fold now, you're even more likely to see a multi-way pot in the next hand.

I appreciate the counter argument, but I still shove this almost every time. Btw, looking forward to the Knockout strategy article.

Mark said...

Thanks for the thoughts everyone, I did indeed shove this one...

Maybe I'll construct a real example another time and frame the question the other way round - what is the minimum hand to push based on stacks / calling ranges in situation XYZ??

Always happy to keep the Planet gong tradition of provoking thought going!!

Cheers, Mark