Friday, December 07, 2007

Luck - A Reverse Angle View...

Thinking about that old chestnut again, the thing we like to call luck. Not going to get into any philosphical arguments about perception of chance events etc right now.... 'luck' will do!

During a tournament we play a wide selection of hands right?? Pairs, High Cards (A-K etc), suited connectors and a whole range of more speculative holdings. And sometimes we run into aces!

Here is todays thoughts, from a statistical viewpoint each player will be dealt aces (or any specific pair) once in every 221 hands (on average). There are 8 or 9 opponents in each hand... so going with 8 we have a one in 27 chance of running into aces each hand (approximation here, sure people folding increase this likelihood and having an ace yourself decreases etc)... thats not my point today.

Now we add KK... down to around 1 in 14.... so we have 60 hands an hour in a tournament, that leaves 4 chances, on average, that we run into AA or KK.

So here is the perspective... if you avoided these spots at each break you can smile, pat yourself on the back and think of how lucky you are! It will make up for those times someone hits their 2-outer to send you to the rail!!


As a quick aside, no challenges at the poker tables this month.

Have a list of writing to do that is going to take me well into Jan 08 to complete and also very busy with creating (top secret new website that is going to be just grrrrreat!). Will be playing a little in-between but want this to be for relaxation rather than challenging myself for this month. Will set up a couple of 'fun' challenges for the new year though, both on killing the SNGs again and growing my micro-balance at Pacific.

GL at the tables, Mark


seymour cards said...

hey mark,

good luck at the tables and looking forward to the top secret website.

was wondering if we could swap links.

i've added you to my blog

and was hoping you'd do the same

be back soon


Mark said...

Thanks for the link there Seymour, noce blog and have added you to my 'blogs of distinction' list

Cheers, Mark