Thursday, October 04, 2007

SNG Strategy - ATC Part #3

... apologies for the abrupt end to yesterday's post - a text reminded me I was in danger of missing a lunch appointment and being late would have made life very difficult indeed (will do a post on the fine ladies of Hungary at some point soon!!)

- Anyway, at the end of the last post we were starting to look at what happens when your blind steal gets called... (of course we have the sub-topic of betting a little less too)

To my mind there are 4 plausable scenarios of 'what happens next'.

1 - You miss the flop and the BB who called you bets, no discussion required here - a fold.
2 - You hit the flop and the BB checks, decision time - a continuation bet? Not the original intention...
3 - You miss the flop and the BB checks, you check behind and the BB checks a 'safe' turn, you fire off a delayed continuation bet here. (assuming for simplicity that you'll fold if the BB bets the turn)
4 - The hand gets checked down all the way to the end...

Will start with number 2 and use the KJ example hand - hitting 2nd pair or better (or a strong draw) would be the only time I'm cbetting here.... this is where the original question of 'does your hand matter?' gets interesting... as hitting the flop with a medium and a weak holding are 2 different cases.... will add in the probability of each scenario at the end.

So you get flatted and lead out after hitting the flop - 70% of the time the BB folds and 30% of the time the BB either calls again (yuk!) or check-raises all-in (both times you are done with the hand)

100 attempts:
70 * + 350 chips in total
30 * - 600 chips in total
- (70*350)-(30*600)/100 = +65 Chips


Fine, here is (3) the check-check / check-bet line, in these circumstances, assuming a 'safe' turn, we have to assume the BB folds to the Cbet quite often - 85% sounds good here.

100 attempts:
85 * 350 chips in total
15 * - 600 chips in total

- (85*350)-(15*600)/100 = +207.5 chips

Finally the check-check, check-check, check-check line!! (ok would have been easier to say no firther betting to showdown!). Assuming here that you missed the flop, 35% wins might be generous for KJ (certainly any high card strength matters here).... will go with 2 examples then, once with KJ and once with 9-7 suited

KJ 100 attempts
35 * + 350 chips
65 * - 300 chips
- (35*350)-(65*300)/100 = minus 70 chips

97 100 attempts
15 * +350
85 * - 300
- (15*350)-(85*300)/100 = minus 200 chips

ok - thats enough for one day, will (finally!) conclude this line of thought tomorrow by putting probabilities onto the above scenarios and then comparing the 'blind steal with nothing expectation' with the 'blind steal with a little something expectation'... and of course factoring in the meta-game considerations in the comments of the original question.

GL at the tables, Mark

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