Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Sit N Go Strategy - ATC Part #2

ok, onwards with the any-2 blind steal... comments on table image + likelihood of domination wre great. Today I wanted to look only at an approximate chance of being called... not going to go into too much detail on the mathematics - really just to propose a couple of 'blind defence ranges" while in the 18ish blig blinds area and work backwards from there....

So the worst scenario is the flat call (ohhh, I hate those 'flatters' sometimes!) as here we have a decision to make after the flop... do we cbet? (probably no), delayed cbet if checked to twice (quite possibly!).

I'll give an average low limit ($30 and under) SNG player 15% from experience - half of which they re-raise with and half flat-call. We could also try to factor in the 'any-2 card re-raise' (another day another day!!).

So, how would 15% relate to chip ev from the steal portion only? will factor in showdown value later.

So with 2 opponents (button raise) we are called or raised approx 28% of the time - 15% from the SB + 15% of the remainder from the BB... again assuming just one opponent for simplicity.

From the C/o we have 3 poteential callers - now we are called around 36% of the time.

So, we invest 300 to win 150 in blinds - for the steal only:

2 - Opponents
72* +150 (+10800)
28* -300 (-8400)
= +2400 / 100 = + 24 Chips each time (feels a bit low!)

3 - Opponents
64* +150 (+9600)
36* -300 (-10800)
= -1200 / 100 = minus 12 chips each time

So, the steal alone is marginal.

We now need to factor in our equity when called.... assuming that we always fold when re-raised before the flop. So half the time we are flat called, and on these occasions we have 35% equity...

Oops - got to run - almost missed lunch appointment!! Will do the 'equity when called' calc tomorrow!!

No comments: