Friday, October 05, 2007

Sit & Go Strategy - ATC - Final Installment

Time to bring the blind stealing with any-2 cards series to a close... quick summary of what has gone before..

- Original question - if you are not intending to call a re-raise why do your cards matter when blind stealing from late position during the middle stages?
- Part 2 - How often do we expect to get called or raised? Use 15% per player here, probably too wide, (10% might be better?) erred on the side of caution to illustrate a point...
- Part 3 - what are the different possibilities when we do get flat called?

So, to bring it all together we will look at the overall percentages of the 'flat called' scenarios and see what difference it makes to our chip-ev expactation (not using $ev yet since we are in the middle stages)

So we are flat called - taking the button scenario and 50% calls / 50% re-raise (we fold) this happens 14% of the time (half of the cumulative 28%).

Of these times -

20% the BB bets out, we miss and fold.
25% the BB checks, we hit hard enough to cbet
25% the BB checks, we check and BB checks turn, we cbet
30% the hand is checked all the way to the river.

So, for which scenarios do our actual cards make any difference?

To my mind it is only the 2nd one, and then only a small difference between KJ and 9-4 in our hand. There may be a slight difference in the 4th (checked down) scenario too (this would be marginal enough to make no difference)

I will suggest that the difference between c-betting with top pair holding KJ and with 9-4 would be slight because the kind of hands we are getting flat-called with are themselves marginal (a pair of 10's would presumably raise - so we are only worried about 2 overcards when hitting the top pair with 9-4). Lets say this affects our chances in this case 1/3rd of the time.

So, we have more or less boiled it down to 8% of 14% where the cards make an actual difference... thats just a little over 1% of the time.

Appears that the case can be closed - the difference between raising junk and raising a medium strength hand is negilable...

Back then to the meta-game considerations posted in the comments of the original post... checking down 2-3 off here might make future blind steals a little more difficult - it might also get you 'less respect' when the push-fold part of the game begins in earnest!

Was about to write about how this could be a good thing if you do get dealt some cards - but I think we save that line of thinking for another time!!

GL at the tables, Mark

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