Friday, October 26, 2007

SIt And Go Strategy - Wild Opponents At The Bubble (Part #1)

Time for a new series... probably 3 posts concerning lower limit sit and go strategy adjustments to those crazy / wild opponents at the bubble.

We've all seen it right? opponents pushing and calling with junk, mini-raising, limp / folding and all the rest of those horrible plays. What I wanted to start thinking about is the maths behind the adjustments to make in these situations... so many angles to look at that this post will introduce the subject today and the numbers will follow in the next few days.

Scenario #1 - You have a +$ev push while 4 handed according to ICM, for arguments sake we will say this is +2% (for those who do not yet use ICM this is a 'no brainer' push under normal circumstances - see bottom of post for links). However, your read on the table is that they are the wildest crazyest donks you ever met - sure you are +$ev when called - but how do we account for the fact that they will bust each other so readily, in a mathematical sense??? Could this be a case (as Sklansky would put it) of turning down a good bet today in order to take a better bet tomorrow?

Scenario #2 - Instead of pushing / folding those opponents are making early game type plays, raising 3 times the big blind and continuation betting / folding etc... should you adjust your push / fold game in any way to take advantage of this? The players obviously have no understanding of pot-odds here let alone ICM...

Will leave you to think about it for today... below are 2 links for those interested in learning more about the ICM, the first is to my own site SNG planet's introduction to the subject, the second is to my personal favourite SNG tool - SNG Wiz - which goes through your hand histories after the game and shows up whether you played 'correctly' according to the poker maths - also great for running simulations of common bubble scenarios to learn the optimal plays, you can take a 30 day trial to see if it works for you before buying...

Intro to SNGs ICM

WIZ Free Trial

GL at the tables, Mark

No comments: