Tuesday, October 30, 2007

PLO Cash Game Strategy - Interesting Hand!

Played a little PLO over on my favourite site Titan last night when this hand came up... do not have the history so this will be from memory. The reason I starting thinking about it was that the 'villan' in this hand sent me a chat-box full of abuse after the hand... this lead me to question my own logic in the hand and get the notepad out to scribble down some numbers... comments on my line welcome!

So I have the button in a 10c 20c game and a stack of around $25 up from the initial $20 buy-in. Get dealt 8h-8s-Ah-Kh and see a raise to 60c from the Cutoff player who is generally tight but will take stabs at pots after the flop...

Elect to just call here, I have position and will surely be re-raised by exactly the hands I hate (aces and kings or something like j-Q-K-A if I repop), big blind also calls making the pot $1.90 before the flop.

The flop comes 8c-7h-9h

Not bad at all, I have middle set + nut flush draw

Villan leads for $1.20 and I decide to find out where I stand with a re-raise to $3.60. The big blind folds and villan flat calls. Pot now = $9.10

So, villan only called... what could he have - my thought here is something like a combo straight and / or flush draw - if he had the made straight already without a flush draw he should have re-raised me the pot right? a set of 9's or some 2-pair combination is also possible... decide that a wrap and non-nut flush draw (I have the nut flush) is most consistent with the call.

Turn comes Ac.

Not a bad turn, giving me 2 more outs for a full house in the event that villan already has a straight and not helping any straight draws....

Villan now checks, he has abandoned hands a few times after leading the flop and calling so this is consistant with a straight draw too... I bet $4 assuming that this will take the pot most times.

Bam! Villan check-raises all-in... for $17 more... hmmm

So, looks like he has either hit the straight or has me on a draw against his set (777 or 999 most probable) time to look at the odds.

The total pot = $29.80 and it will cost me $13 to call. This means I'm getting around 2.3/1 pot-odds... the question is how many outs?

If villan has a straight.... the last 1*8, 3*7's, 3*9's, 2*aces and any of the 8 remaining hearts should win thats 17 out of 45 unseen cards.... a profitable call.

If villan has 777 or 999 - if we assign equal probability to each then 2.3/1 is again an easy call.

If villan is bluffing with a draw (10% or less chance of this based on the action) I'm miles ahead and getting odds too.

So, after 10 seconds of thinking about things I call, spike a heart against villans straight and win a nice pot.... cue the chat box full of abuse (regular readers will know that I'm immune to such things - though it did make me question my call at the end!).

In retrospect the only change I would make to my line here is to bet the full pot when checked to on the turn... since I was already committed to going all the way this would have made the decision making process easier!!

Cheers, Mark

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