Wednesday, May 02, 2007

What a Difference A Day Makes....

Running g00t in the $27's thus far in May - small sample admittedly but already covered last months losses and into the positive... its all in the head right, expecting to lose after my downswing in April became a self-fulfilling prophecy. According to Mrs Gong I now have 6 months of good varience ahead!

Have been thinking about a few things but not quite ready to write posts about them yet. Here is some food for thought...

Poker Hand Distributions:

First read about this David Sklansky's Theory of Poker - if you know an opponent will raise with AA / KK / AK and the probability of each is 0.45% / 0.45% / 1.2% then you can use this info to work out your chances against his range.

All very nice in theory... what I want to look at is how these probability distributions affect ranges in a SNG (primarily at the bubble). Working along the lines of how the Ace-x hands increase in likelihood for those players who like to push them... for example someone who will push any pair / A10+ has a ratio of X% between pairs and Aces - while someone with who loves Ace-x and pushes all the way to Ace-2 has a much bigger number of Ace hands (and maybe Kings too) when compared to pairs - meaning your pair and high-Ace hands go up in value.

Might sound a little hypothetical but my though is that there might be something in this as far as fine-tuning push / fold ranges in SNGs and playing vs raises in MTTs goes.

Will ponder it a little more and do an article soon.

GL at the tables,



Dale said...

Nice blog, found it by chance in google.
What's your name on stars / 2p2?

Mark said...

Thanks Dale,

I keep my Stars name under wraps, feel like a little *too* much info on how I play is written here... Probably a tad paranoid really.

My Titan name is 'mftpg' (mark from the planet gong), mainly cash / plo over there.

Oould not get to your profile - let me know your blog url if you have one running.

Cheers, Mark