Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Sit n Go Strategy - Calculating the Extra Value of A Bubble Big Stack

More thoughts on Sit n Go Strategy and ICM... it is fairly common to see a big stack 'own' the bubble, pushing again and again against 3 smaller stacks who will not call for fear of busting out in 4th. (actually covered the ICM for this in a previous post somewhere in my archive!).

My thought was this - can we put an approximate numerical value on having a big stack in terms of chip ev and $ev and then use this to 'work backwards' when deciding whether to make a push or call with 5 players to go?

An example - 5 equal stacks of 2000 at bb400, the small blind pushes into you and, using the math skills gained from reading plan3t Gong you assess that your call has a negative expectation of 2% in terms of $ev. The conventional line then is to fold...

But wait, would making the call and having a big stack give you the opportunity to recoup this equity loss in the event that you did win?

Lets have a look at the situation if you called and won the hand, you now have 4000 chips and the others (about to do through the blinds have 2000 each). The likeihood of those players wanting to fight with you has gone way down - which in turn should enable you to win most pots uncontested. An important factor being that winning the first pot stretches your lead even more, kind of like a virtuous circle.

If you take 2% the worst of it we need to gain >4% the times we do survive, it seems clear to me that this is possible (at least against opponents who understand bubble dynamics).

Busy today, will think about this a little more and see if there are $ev ranges we can work with to take this from SNG theory to practice...

GL at the tables,

Mark

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