Friday, April 20, 2007

Bang Goes April - Musings on Luck, Tilt and Superstition

Now I am as straightforward as they come when supernatural beings are concerned. No beliefs - zero... zilch... zip (and even more words starting with Z that mean 'nothing'!). Just to be crystal clear here below is a small list of things I do not believe in:

Gods - Supernatural dieties in general, very odd concept really - keeps people happy and thats all good - but c'mon...
Ghosts - Whats that all about then?
Luck - No such thing, a daft human perception of patterns in chance events.
UFOs - Now there is a statistical argument due to the sheer size of the universe etc, but really - little green (or grey men) in flying saucers - your kidding right!
Fate - Same as luck, load of old rubbish.

Enough of that, just a bit of background on why April has gone 'poof' for me Poker-wise. It is actually due to some very kind and supportive words from my lovely fiance...

More background - Mrs Plan3t Gong is very supportive of my degenerate poker habit. Not only watching / playing tourneys together (often with a glass or two) but She has a good number (600ish??) SNGs to her name (probably best not to mention the effect on my Sharkscope graph!!).

So I was explaining my current bout of negative variance the other day and the following kind response came along! "ah well, just imagine that it is just for one month and will never happen this badly again dear..." (something along those lines anyway)

Here is the issue - I started playing again after my break and lost a few hands when well ahead, perfectly normal right? Except now I am expecting to lose money... the effect? well of course my wish has come true - it is slowly leaking from my bankroll due to the very fact that I expect it to! Doh - a viscious circle.

The point about the beliefs thing at the top was to explain how such thinking is just, well, not me!

If we look a little closer this is a very subtle form of Tilt. My play is less confident, passive, weak due to the fact that I am expecting losses - this creates the very losses I am expecting... which makes my play weaker and more passive... which... ok I am sure you get the picture!

The remedy. I am going to cut down on playing for the rest of the month - and when I do play it will be at lower than my normal levels.

Plenty to do in the meantime, together with a few poker friends (and indeed familiy!) a new website is currently under construction - it will act as a portal for SNGs, Satellites and MTTs with strategy, reviews and all sorts of other bits and pieces (even a page dedicated to blog round-ups!!). Has been under construction for a while now but the light has appeared at the end of the tunnel and early May should see some announcements right here.

GL at the tables,



Keith Jackson said...

Bad runs hit us all Mark. I am sure you will come through it.So just stay with it.
By the way good luck with the new web site.

Game101 said...

I'm intimately familiar with the type of tilt you described. take some time and it will go away.

when i run bad i play a few sngs to kill time, perhaps you should try some 6max...:)