Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Musings on Bad Beats, Tilt and Update on Videos!

Wanted to write about bad beats today, not from a personal perspective - of course we all get them and I am no exception - more from a conceptual viewpoint... to ask the question, what is a bad beat and, importantly, why do people get so upset by them?

Here is what triggered the thoughts, 27 SNG on Stars, 2 players get all in on the turn on an Ace / 2 / K / 7 rainbow flop... one guy has AK but gets knocked out when a Jack appears on the river and gives the other guy trips, ouch!! Pretty dodgy play from the JJ guy but that is not the point - the AK guy was furious!!! He hung around for at least 10 minutes spouting abuse in the chat box... not so unusual but let us ask the question 'what made this guy so mad???'

The AK guy got his money in when 96% favourite to win the hand (he would not have known this until showdown of course). This is almost as good as it is ever going to get in poker... 80% is considered excellent (aces pre-flop) and 75%ish also a no-brainer (AK vs AQ for example). The very best scenario is someone drawing to one out with one card to come but that is unusual enough to ignore for the moment!

So what exactly is a bad beat?

Looking at it from another perspective we are very happy to get our money in the middle as a 3/1 favourite pre flop. Should we really be counting the 25% of times we lose the hand as a 'bad beat' ??? In my humble opinion not at all.

Sure, the way the cards fall will affect the outcome of an individual hand - but if we were not able to get the money 'good' on a consistant basis then we would never make any money from the game...

So this begs the question - Why do people tilt on the basis of a single hand where they get their money in as a big favourite and lose??

It has to be some kind of misunderstanding right??!? The idea of the game of poker is to keep finding situations (using your skill / play and judgement) where you have an equity edge and profit from them over time... the key for me is simple - good bankroll management - you have to accept that you will lose as favourite a certain % of the time, if you are going to be a winning player over time then you need to have the bankroll to survive these swings, start up another game and carry right on!

Ah well, rant over.... 'Bad beat' forums are usually busy places so maybe there is more to it!!

Video Update:

I now have 4 SNGs 'in the can' and it is now a matter of editing them and chopping into small enough segments to post on Utube. The first will be 14 minutes (probably in 2 parts) will start with a beat (how appropriate!) and then look at managing a small stack on the bubble in a turbo SNG - hope to have it ready for tomorrow but failing that it will be Saturday (travel to the UK on Friday).

Cheers and GL,


1 comment:

MrTynKyn said...

Hi Mark:
There is a site that allow you ti upload large files . I had downloaded from 2+2 videos of 160mb . I think I haven`t lose time to getting worst the quality of video to fit in utube ( at least you want to know how to manage this videos) cause people interesting in see your video will download it.
Another , interesting cold thinking about bat beats ( how to apply in 2 seconds is teh key , right ???? heh e just kidding)
Another, when the videos will be ready , would you like to comment in the blog the most important part ( the bubble one) if we ask you . It would be great.
God trip to UK .