Monday, January 15, 2007

SNG Bubble Play #2 - Big Stack Play

Sit and Go Bubble play is where the $$$ comes from! This is part #2 and will look at what adjustments to make when there is a big stack at the table. You might be that big stack so we will have a look at this too...

First a bit of ICM - looking at the prize pool equity of 4 players with a 50/30/20/0 payout and a $100 prize pool...

Biggy: 5200 - Current Equity = $37.71
Smally 1: 1600 - Current Equity = $20.76
Smally 2: 1600 - Current Equity = $20.76
Smally 3: 1600 - Current Equity = $20.76

Ok, will start by looking at things from the big stacks perspective. The thing to note here is that the equity gained by knocking out one of the smallies is actually less than the equity lost by doubling one of them up, not by much but still significant...

So - Biggy calls and wins;

Biggy: 6800 - $42.99 (increase of $5.28)
Smally 1: 1600 - $28.50 (increase of $7.74)
Smally 2: 1600 - $28.50 (increase of $7.74)

Biggy Calls and Loses

Biggy 1 - 3800 - $32.19 (decrease of $5.52)
Biggy 2 - 3200 - $29.64 (increase of $8.88)
Smally 1 - 1600 - $19.08 (decrease of $1.64)
Smally 2 - 1600 - $19.08 (decrease of $1.64)

For me the really interesting number, and one which should be accounted for whenever there is a bubble decision to me made is the change in equity for smally 1. Assuming he has called an all in from the original big stack here and won - thus increasing prize pool equity by $8.88. This is fine until we ask what did he risk to gain these dollars? The answer is in the starting equity list - he risked his current equity of $20.76 to win an additional $8.88, basically he way laying odds against himself of 2.3/1...

So we change perspective for a second and look at the biggy before the hand... yes he stands to gain less than he would lose if he is called and loses the hand... but hang on - the smally can only call if he is sure that he is better than 70% to win the hand (that is breakeven - in reality he would need to be 75% to 80% here). How many hands can he actually profitably call with here???

So the biggy is not pushing because of the increase in equity of winning the hand - he is pushing because it is so unlikely that the smally can make the call that he picks up the blinds uncontested so often as to make the push a profitable move!

There is the maths, but that only helps so much. What we need to do is look at how this affects real-life situations in a low-level (<$30) SNG.

First a vitally important question to ask at every bubble: Which (if any) of my opponents understand what is really going on here???

Not as easy to answer as you might think, known regulars have a better chance of understanding. Someone who has gone from being tight early to open-pushing at each opportunity is likely to understand.... while an opponent who is min raising (or worse flat calling raises) at the bubble likely doe not.

Next we will give some 'average' smallies calling ranges: Here we are assuming your opponents do not understand bubble dynamics;

Tight Smally: 66+ A10o+ KQo+
Average Smally: 44+ A8o+ K10o+ QJs+
Loose / Desperate Smally: 22+ any Ace, K6s+ Q9s+ and J10s+

From the big stack perspective what can you push into these guys, assuming blinds at 100/200 with a 25 ante?

- Against 1 opponent: Any 2 cards regardless of their range
- Against 2 opponents:
- 2 Loose = Top 15%, thats 33+ A7o+ and KQ
- 2 Average = Top 63%!! thats a lot of hands!
- 2 Tight = Any 2 Cards
- Against all 3 opponents:
- 1 of each type = Top 19%, thats 22+, A2s+, JTs+
- 3 Average = Top 13%, 44+ A10o+ etc

A question - what do you think would happen to the range against all 3 'average' opponents if we put the blinds up to 400/200????

An answer - The range becomes 'any 2 cards' again!!

Hmmm, this post has got a little longer than I anticipated so we will have to look at how the smallies should push and fold when biggy is not in the hand another day.

GL at the tables - feedback (good / bad or ugly) always appreciated!

Cheers, Mark

1 comment:

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