Monday, January 08, 2007

PokerStars SNGs Getting Harder? Follow Up Concerning ROI

And still the 'Sit and Goes getting harder' debate rages in the forums, seems that there are new posts every day on pXf and 2+2! Thought it was time to look a bit deeper into the need for table selection... the reason it pays to be a little selective is that there are a good number of winning multi-tablers out there, check their stats out on sharkscope and you will see.

Ok, the question is - what would be the effect on your ROI when there are 1,2 or even 3 winners seated at the table?

To keep it as simple as possible let us take a $10 SNG with 10 players and ignore the rake (this is part of your ROI calculation anyway). The prize pool is thus $100 and the example expectation - for a moderate winner - is of a 10% ROI per game. For every one of these you enter you can expect to take home $11 or $1 in profit.

Now we can look at the effect of having known winners at the table in 2 ways - firstly the effect on the prize pool, and secondly your 'new' ROI when matched against the winning players.

So, lets imagine 3 winners join - each have a healthy 20% ROI over a large sample. They each expect to take home, on average $12 for every $10 invested. The effect on the prize pool is not that marked - there are now $96 available. Not the whole story then.

What we need to do is to look at your ROI against these winning players. Against random opponents you have 10% - but against winners????

Start by looking at what happens if we imagine you are equally skilled - your expectation against these guys is effectively zero - now for the whole table you have 10% ROI against 6 opponents and 0% against 3 - your expectation has been reduced by 1/3rd to 6.667% of the smaller prize pool.

But what if, in reality these guys are better than you? You may in fact have a negative expectation against them... now we must reduce the money you take per game still further since you are actually losing to 3 or the 6 opponents!

Finally back to my favourite subject - opponents errors!!! Some of your edge comes from knowing correct bubble push and fold ranges and general bubble strategy. This is only an edge for one reason - that your opponents do not play the bubble correctly! Now we introduce, on average 1 or 2 of the winning players who know this part of the game... oops - we have turned from a reasonable winner into a losing player.

Of course, there is a solution - in fact there are many - get to know the winning players at your level and watch for them joining the tables. If they are signed up for the next 6 games go and make a coffee and come back later - your bankroll will thank you for it!!

Cheers, Mark

1 comment:

littleacornman said...

I came 2nd at a 'Stars $15 turbo last night after carefully selecting my table.In total apart from one winner who was $87 up, the whole table had lost just under $25k in total between them.

Is that the fishiest table of all time?!