Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Titan Jackpot SNGs - Worth the extra rake??

Titan poker have been running their 'Jackpot Sit and Go' promotions for a while now. The concept is simple - win 6 in a row and get a huge bonus! There are actually 3 levels;

Fort Knox $50+9 - 6 players - Win 6 consecutively get $50k.
Rio $20+3.5 - 6 players - win 6 consecutively get $25k.
Maui - $5+1 - 10 players - win 5 consecutively get $15k

The good news is that if you play SNGs anyway you have an extra chance to win some big money... on the other hand the entry fee for each is higher than the equivilant
non-jackpot sit and go. I thought that it was time to do some analysis and ask whether it might be worth spending the extra in fees for the chance of a jackpot.

There are a couple of significant differences to include with the 6-Man SNGs, they
actually pay 3 places rather than 2! We also need to take into account the standard of play in these games as the experience level of the participants tends to be less than that for the equivalent buy-in non-jackpot games.

Let me start with some really simple probablilities and work from there; All else being equal you have a 16.7% chance of winning a 6-man SNG... so taking nothing more into account an 'average' player could win 6 in a row 0.002% of the time - or 1 in 500 sets of 6. Put another way if Mr Average plays 3000 jackpot SNGs he could expect, on average, to win the jackpot once!

Lets look at the fee vs the prize for the fort Knox; (3000 * $9) - $50000 = $23000

Ok, so it looks like there is some value here!

The complicating factor comes when we look at the same figures for a winning player.
Lets take the following assumption for 'Mrs Winner'; 25% 1st / 15% 2nd place / 10% 3rd place finish distribution.

After 3000 'non-jackpot' 6-man sngs;
750 1st ($210) = $157500
450 2nd ($90) = $40500
Total = (157500 + 40500) - (3000* $55) = +$33000

After 3000 jackpot Titain 6-man sngs;
750 1st (150) = $112500
450 2nd (90) = $40500
300 3rd (60) = $18000
Total = ($112500 + $40500 + $18000) - (3000 * $59) = -$6000

Interesting swing, over 3000 games there is a difference of $39000 - a strong suggestion that the winning player should stick to the lower-rake non-jackpot SNGs... but wait, in saying that 'Mrs Winner' has 25% winning chances we need to recalculate the probability of 6 in a row - this is now 0.019%, almost 1 in 50!!

Well, came into this analysis expecting the increased rake to make these unplayable, and am pleasantly suprised that there is some potential value in these. I already mentioned that they fill with less experienced players, let me elaborate - they fill with fish!! This, of course, makes things difficult in its own way - but I think I'm experienced enough by now to adjust.

I should mention bonuses - itan Poker give 20 'points' for each $1 in tournament fees and 600 points = $5 bonus clearance. Thus if you are playing the Fort Knox while clearing a bonus you are effectively saving almost $2 in fees.

One of the deals we had for the now defunct PP UK was an increased sign-up bonus for Titon poker, if you use the code 'POKERPOINT' when you sign up the initial bonus is a 100% match up to $500 (usually 25% up to $250 so a significent increase). You can use this link;

Titan Poker

My user name there is 'MFTPG' look forward to seeing you at the tables.

Cheers, Mark

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Don't forget you have the winnings of six consecutive 1st and 2nd place finishes...